|Due By (Pacific Time)
||12/10/2016 09:00 pm
Research Paper or Course Project Instructions
- The Model The model and the data are the starting points of a statistics project. The first step in formulating a model is to select a topic of interest and to consider the model's scope and purpose. In particular thought should be given to the objectives of the study, what boundaries to place on the topic, what hypotheses might be tested, what variables might be predicted, and what policies might be evaluated. The topic selected can be economic or noneconomic.
You are free to choose the topic of your choice. Some paper titles are presented below:
"Air pollution and Population"
"Birth Rates, Death Rates, and Economic Growth in Developing Economies"
"Demand for and Supply of Higher Education"
"Differential Growth in U.S. Cities"
"Discrimination in the Retail Food Markets"
"Divorce Rates, Birth Rates, and Female Participation in the Labor Force"
"Economic and Social Determinants of Infant Mortality in the United States"
"The Effect of Unemployment on Crime"
"Medical School Applications"
"Police Expenditures and the Deterrence of Crime"
"The Relationship between Exports and Growth in Less Developed Countries"
"Unionization and Strike Activities"
These papers are generally interested in the impact of some independent variable X on a dependent variable Y. But since there are many variables X that have influence on the variable Y, it is important to include all those variables on the right-hand side of the equation.
II. The Data. Data form an essential ingredient in any statistics study, and obtaining an adequate and relevant set of data is an important and often critical part of the statistics project. National Statistical Abstracts, Statistical Yearbooks, or Statistical Handbooks, published annually by most major countries provide both summary statistics and references to primary sources.
For the United States, the best starting point for the acquisition of relevant data is the Statistical Abstract of the United States which is published annually. The appendix to the annual Economic Report of the President contains information on fewer variables than the Statistical Abstract, but has a longer times series for these variables. It includes series on income, employment and production. The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the Survey of Current Business each month. www.bls.gov or www.bea.gov or www.Economagic.com provides access to over 200,000 economic times series. For financial data, there are several primary sources. www.finance.yahoo.com contains daily stock-trading volume, prices, quarterly dividends, and earnings for all NYSE and AMEX securities.The Quarterly Review, Economic Review or the Business Review of the various regional Federal Reserve Banks also contain good applied economic research. For international data, the United Nations Statistical Yearbook provides a wealth of data on member countries http://unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm or https://data.oecd.org The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis puts out International Economic Conditions which gives comparative data for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, etc.www.census.gov can be useful as well.
III. The Write-Up The paper should be approximately 3 to 4 pages in length. The following outline is suggested for your paper:
I. Title Page
III. Review of Previous Literature Discuss the approaches and results of previous studies of this topic or related topics. Explain why your paper is better than the previous literature.
IV. Specification of the Model Define and discuss the specification of your model. What variables are included in the model? Explain why you chose those variables and the role they play in the model. Have you included all the important variables in the model? What are the expected signs of all the coefficients?
V. Data Description Provide complete descriptions of all the data, their sources.
VI. Results Present the estimates of the model and its related statistics such as standard errors, t statistics and the R2 . Discuss which coefficients are significant at the 5% level. If relevant, a discussion of possible serial correlation, descriptive statistics, and hypothesis tests, ANOVA, etc.
VII. Discussion Discuss the signs and magnitudes of the estimated coefficients and their comparisons to predicted or theoretical signs and magnitudes. What have we learned? Consider how the model might be reformulated in future studies, and implications for future statistics research.
VIII. Conclusions Sum up the major results of your study.
IX. Bibliography Include complete citations of all items referred to in the paper.
X. Data If reasonable, provide a table of all the data used. At a minimum, provide the summary statistics for the data.