Project #196295 - Operations Management homework

Business Tutors

Subject Business
Due By (Pacific Time) 08/13/2017 04:00 pm

13) Historical demand for a product is

 

DEMAND

JANUARY

12

FEBRUARY

11

MARCH

15

APRIL

12

MAY

16

JUNE

15

 

 

 

a-       Using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.60,030, and 0.10, find the July forecast.

b-      Using a simple three-month moving average, find the July forecast.

c-       Using single exponential smoothing with 0.2 and a June forecast = 13, find the July forecast. Make whatever assumptions you wish.

d-      Using simple linear regression analysis, calculate the regression equation for the preceding demand date.

e-      Using the regression equation in d, calculate the forecast for July.

 

WEEK

FORECAST DEMAND

ACTUAL DEMAND

5

140

180

6

150

170

7

150

185

8

150

205

 

 

 

 

 

 

17) Industries has a simple forecasting model: Take the actual demand for the same month last year and divide that by the number of fractional weeks in that month. This gives the average weekly demand for that month. This weekly average is used as the weekly forecast for the same month this year. This technique was used to forecast eight weeks for this yer, which are shown below along with the actual demand that occurred. The following eight weeks show the forecast (based on last year) and the demand that actually occurred:

WEEK

FORECAST DEMAND

ACTUAL DEMAND

1

140

137

2

140

133

3

140

150

4

140

160

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

a)      

       Compute the MAD of forecast erros.

b)      Using the RSFE, compute the tracking signal.

c)       Based on your answers to a and b, comment on Harlen’s method of forecasting.

 

25) Tuscon Machinery Inc, manufactures numerically controlled machines, which sell for an average price of 0.5 million each. Sales for these NCMs for the past two years were are follows:

 

QUARTER

QUANTITY (UNITS)

LAST YEAR

 

I

12

II

18

III

26

IV

16

QUARTER

QUANTITY (UNITS)

THIS YEAR

 

I

16

II

24

III

28

IV

18

                                                                

 

 

a-       Find a line using regression in Excel.

b-      Find the trend and seasonal factors.

c-       Forecast sales for next year.

 

5 pg 268) DAT Inc, needs to develop an aggregate plan for its product line. Relevant data are

 

Production time                1 hr per unit                     

  Beginning Inventory                       500 units

Average labor cost           $10 per hour                   

   Safety stock                                        One-half month

Workweek                          5 days, 8 hrs each day   

Shortage cost                                     $20 per unit per month

 

Days per month                Assume 20 workdays     

Carrying cost                                      $5 per unit per month 

The forecast for next year is

JAN

FEB

MAR

APRL

MAY

JUNE

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

NOV

DEC

2500

3000

4000

3500

3500

3000

3000

4000

4000

4000

3000

3000

 

Management prefers to keep a constant workforce and production level, absorbing variations in demand through inventory excesses and shortages. Demand not met is carried over to the following month.

 

Develop an aggregate plan that will meet the demand and other conditions of the problem. Do not try to find the optimum; just find a good solution and state the procedure you might use to test for a better solution. Make any necessary assumptions.

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