Subject  Business 
Due By (Pacific Time)  08/13/2017 04:00 pm 
13) Historical demand for a product is

DEMAND 
JANUARY 
12 
FEBRUARY 
11 
MARCH 
15 
APRIL 
12 
MAY 
16 
JUNE 
15 


a Using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.60,030, and 0.10, find the July forecast.
b Using a simple threemonth moving average, find the July forecast.
c Using single exponential smoothing with 0.2 and a June forecast = 13, find the July forecast. Make whatever assumptions you wish.
d Using simple linear regression analysis, calculate the regression equation for the preceding demand date.
e Using the regression equation in d, calculate the forecast for July.
WEEK 
FORECAST DEMAND 
ACTUAL DEMAND 
5 
140 
180 
6 
150 
170 
7 
150 
185 
8 
150 
205 
17) Industries has a simple forecasting model: Take the actual demand for the same month last year and divide that by the number of fractional weeks in that month. This gives the average weekly demand for that month. This weekly average is used as the weekly forecast for the same month this year. This technique was used to forecast eight weeks for this yer, which are shown below along with the actual demand that occurred. The following eight weeks show the forecast (based on last year) and the demand that actually occurred:
WEEK 
FORECAST DEMAND 
ACTUAL DEMAND 
1 
140 
137 
2 
140 
133 
3 
140 
150 
4 
140 
160 



a)
Compute the MAD of forecast erros.
b) Using the RSFE, compute the tracking signal.
c) Based on your answers to a and b, comment on Harlen’s method of forecasting.
25) Tuscon Machinery Inc, manufactures numerically controlled machines, which sell for an average price of 0.5 million each. Sales for these NCMs for the past two years were are follows:
QUARTER 
QUANTITY (UNITS) 
LAST YEAR 

I 
12 
II 
18 
III 
26 
IV 
16 
QUARTER 
QUANTITY (UNITS) 
THIS YEAR 

I 
16 
II 
24 
III 
28 
IV 
18 
a Find a line using regression in Excel.
b Find the trend and seasonal factors.
c Forecast sales for next year.
5 pg 268) DAT Inc, needs to develop an aggregate plan for its product line. Relevant data are
Production time 1 hr per unit
Beginning Inventory 500 units
Average labor cost $10 per hour
Safety stock Onehalf month
Workweek 5 days, 8 hrs each day
Shortage cost $20 per unit per month
Days per month Assume 20 workdays
Carrying cost $5 per unit per month
The forecast for next year is
JAN 
FEB 
MAR 
APRL 
MAY 
JUNE 
JULY 
AUG 
SEPT 
OCT 
NOV 
DEC 
2500 
3000 
4000 
3500 
3500 
3000 
3000 
4000 
4000 
4000 
3000 
3000 
Management prefers to keep a constant workforce and production level, absorbing variations in demand through inventory excesses and shortages. Demand not met is carried over to the following month.
Develop an aggregate plan that will meet the demand and other conditions of the problem. Do not try to find the optimum; just find a good solution and state the procedure you might use to test for a better solution. Make any necessary assumptions.
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