# Project #196295 - Operations Management homework

 Subject Business Due By (Pacific Time) 08/13/2017 04:00 pm

13) Historical demand for a product is

 DEMAND JANUARY 12 FEBRUARY 11 MARCH 15 APRIL 12 MAY 16 JUNE 15

a-       Using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.60,030, and 0.10, find the July forecast.

b-      Using a simple three-month moving average, find the July forecast.

c-       Using single exponential smoothing with 0.2 and a June forecast = 13, find the July forecast. Make whatever assumptions you wish.

d-      Using simple linear regression analysis, calculate the regression equation for the preceding demand date.

e-      Using the regression equation in d, calculate the forecast for July.

 WEEK FORECAST DEMAND ACTUAL DEMAND 5 140 180 6 150 170 7 150 185 8 150 205

17) Industries has a simple forecasting model: Take the actual demand for the same month last year and divide that by the number of fractional weeks in that month. This gives the average weekly demand for that month. This weekly average is used as the weekly forecast for the same month this year. This technique was used to forecast eight weeks for this yer, which are shown below along with the actual demand that occurred. The following eight weeks show the forecast (based on last year) and the demand that actually occurred:

 WEEK FORECAST DEMAND ACTUAL DEMAND 1 140 137 2 140 133 3 140 150 4 140 160

a)

Compute the MAD of forecast erros.

b)      Using the RSFE, compute the tracking signal.

c)       Based on your answers to a and b, comment on Harlen’s method of forecasting.

25) Tuscon Machinery Inc, manufactures numerically controlled machines, which sell for an average price of 0.5 million each. Sales for these NCMs for the past two years were are follows:

 QUARTER QUANTITY (UNITS) LAST YEAR I 12 II 18 III 26 IV 16
 QUARTER QUANTITY (UNITS) THIS YEAR I 16 II 24 III 28 IV 18

a-       Find a line using regression in Excel.

b-      Find the trend and seasonal factors.

c-       Forecast sales for next year.

5 pg 268) DAT Inc, needs to develop an aggregate plan for its product line. Relevant data are

Production time                1 hr per unit

Beginning Inventory                       500 units

Average labor cost           \$10 per hour

Safety stock                                        One-half month

Workweek                          5 days, 8 hrs each day

Shortage cost                                     \$20 per unit per month

Days per month                Assume 20 workdays

Carrying cost                                      \$5 per unit per month

The forecast for next year is

 JAN FEB MAR APRL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC 2500 3000 4000 3500 3500 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 3000 3000

Management prefers to keep a constant workforce and production level, absorbing variations in demand through inventory excesses and shortages. Demand not met is carried over to the following month.

Develop an aggregate plan that will meet the demand and other conditions of the problem. Do not try to find the optimum; just find a good solution and state the procedure you might use to test for a better solution. Make any necessary assumptions.

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